Conseco Unhealthy Insurance

Conseco, Inc. (Public, NYSE:CNO)

Technical Analysis: The intermediate-term downtrend (B) was broken by the short-tem uptrend (D). The uptrend (D) is faltering without having reached resistance (C) at $10. With the long-term downtrend (A) waiting just above resistance (C), there is limited upside potential. If the uptrend (D) is broken, expect a move to support (E) at $2.00. If support (E) is broken, expect a test of the lows under $0.50. Given the very limited upside potential there is no reason to buy CNO.  If you already own CNO, hold until the uptrend (D) is broken, which is very close.


Summary: Sell.

NIKE Tough Climb

NIKE, Inc. (Public, NYSE:NKE)

Technical Analysis: NKE uptrend (D) is having problems with resistance (B) at $70. If you got into this bear rally, congratulations, but now is the time to watch for sell signals. A break of the uptrend (D) would be a weak sell signal. A break of support (E) at $60 would be a strong sell signal with an expectation of a move to support (C) at $40.


Summary: Hold.

American Superconductor Cooling

American Superconductor Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:AMSC)

Technical Analysis:  The wicked downtrend (A) has been over for almost a year, but it still casts an ominous shadow over the current uptrend (C).  The uptrend is mired between resistance (B) at $40, established by the old downtrend (A) and support (E) at $30.  If AMSC breaks support (E) and the uptrend (C), sell with an expectation of a move to support (D) at $20.  If AMSC breaks resistance (B), hold until it clears the old highs, then buy.

Summary:  Hold.

Apple Bobbing

Apple Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:AAPL)

Technical Analysis: AAPL uptrend (C) is struggling with resistance (A) at $200. AAPL, briefly, broke resistance (A), but has, recently, sagged back underneath resistance. If you already have a position, then hold and watch for sell signals. A break of the uptrend (C) is a minor sell signal with an expected move to support (D) around $150. If support (D) breaks that would be a strong sell signal with an expected move to support (E) at $80. If AAPL breaks resistance (A), convincingly, with a move to $220, then buy with an expectation of a move to $300. AAPL needs to be watched very closely at this time.


Summary: Hold.

Kroger Serious Problems

The Kroger Co. (Public, NYSE:KR)

Technical Analysis: KR is one of the first stocks to resume the devastating bear market that started in 2008. The break of support (C) at $20 is a very strong sell signal. Initial target is support (D) at $15.


Summary: Sell.

Walt Disney Not Dead

The Walt Disney Company (Public, NYSE:DIS)

Technical Analysis: In the short-term chart, DIS found support (D) at $15 and formed a short-term uptrend (C). The uptrend (C) is facing a real challenge with resistance (B) at $30. If DIS breaks that resistance (B), then it must get through resistance (A) at $35. After that, resistance (not shown) around $40, presents one last barrier to a tremendous move up with an initial target of $65. As long as the uptrend (C) is not broken, hold DIS stock. When DIS begins breaking the resistance levels (B and A), it becomes a buy. Cautious investors can wait for a break of $40, before taking a position.

Summary: Hold.

Merck a Drug for Depression

Merck & Co., Inc. (Public, NYSE:MRK)

Technical Analysis: MRK downtrend (D) has been broken by the short-term uptrend (E). The short-term uptrend (E) has good support (F) at $30. The initial target is resistance (C and B) in the $50 to $60 range. If MRK breaks the uptrend (E) expect a move to support (F). If support (F) is broken expect a move to the lows around $20. As long as the uptrend (E) is not broken, MRK is a buy.


Summary: Buy.

Harris Corporation Testing Resistance

Harris Corporation (Public, NYSE:HRS)

Technical Analysis: HRS short-term uptrend (E) has broken the long-term downtrend (A) and, now, is testing resistance (C) around $45. If HRS breaks resistance (C) at $45, expect a move to resistance (B) around $50. The most likely scenario is a break of the uptrend (E) and a test of support (D) just below $30. Do not be surprised by an eventual move to long-term support (not shown) around $20. HRS is a hold, but be prepared to sell upon a break of the uptrend (E).

Summary: Hold.

Harley-Davidson Hog Bumps Head

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG)

Technical Analysis: HOG short-term uptrend (C) has broken the long-term downtrend (A). Expect problems with resistance (B) around $30. If the uptrend (C) is broken, expect a move to support (D) at $20. If support (B) breaks, expect a test of the lows around $10. If HOG breaks resistance (B) at $30, then it will become a buy. Until then, HOG is a hold and be prepared to sell upon a break of the uptrend (C).

Summary: Hold.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GMCR)

Technical Analysis: The GMCR good news is that this is one of the few bullish charts. Unfortunately, the bad news is that this bull is old. The break of the short-term uptrend (A) is a warning. Cautious investors should sell a portion of their holdings. If support (B) around $50 fails, that would be a strong sell signal. Initial target is support (C) at $30.

Summary: Weak sell signal.

MGM MIRAGE No Luck

MGM MIRAGE (Public, NYSE:MGM)

Technical Analysis: MGM downtrend (A) was devastating with an over 90% decline from the peak of almost $100. The good news is that the downtrend (A) has been broken by the modest uptrend (D). The bad news is that the uptrend (D) is, unlikely, to break resistance (C) at $20. Expect a test of the lows, establishment of support around $5.00 and a protracted consolidation between support and resistance (C).

Summary: Sell.

Churchill Downs No Bets

Churchill Downs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CHDN)

Technical Analysis: CHDN uptrend (D) has managed to break the downtrend (A) by a very slight margin. Unfortunately, the uptrend (D) has not been able to break resistance (C) at $40. If it does, expect a move to resistance (B) at $50. If the uptrend (D) is broken, expect a move to support (not shown) at $30. If that support is broken, expect a test of support (E) at $20. It is hard to be enthusiastic in the short-term because the risk to reward ratio is so even that there is no reason to place a bet.


Summary: Hold.

Google Resistance is Futile

Google Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GOOG)

Technical Analysis: GOOG uptrend (F) will have a difficult time getting through the range from resistance (C) at $500 to resistance (B) at $600. If the uptrend (F) breaks, expect a move to support (D) around $400. If support (D) at $400 breaks, expect a test of support (E) around $250. GOOG is a strong long-term (5 to 10 years)buy, but short-term prospects are limited by resistance above $500.

Summary: Hold.

JPMorgan Chase Illusive Profits

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)

Technical Analysis: JPM found support (D) at $15 and launched an impressive uptrend (B). The uptrend (B) will encounter serious resistance (A) in the $50 to $60 range. The break of the uptrend (B) is a weak sell signal. A break of support (C) at $40 is a strong sell signal. JPM is not a buy because of the limited upside from this level.

Summary: Hold

Microvision

Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS)

Technical Analysis: MVIS found support (A) around $1.00 and broke the downtrend (F). The uptrend (B) is testing resistance (D) at $6.00. If the uptrend (B) manages to break resistance (D) at $6.00, expect a move to resistance (E) at $10. If MVIS fails to break resistance (D), be prepared to sell, when MVIS breaks the uptrend (B) or support (C) at $4.00.

Summary: Hold.

Dell Does Not Compute

Dell Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DELL)

Technical Analysis: The DELL chart is so bad, that we had to take a look at the fundamentals, to see, if there is a serious problem on the financial side. Nothing real bad, the last part of 2008 showed how quickly business could deteriorate, but DELL has made adjustments. Perhaps, that is what this chart is telling us, DELL will survive, but there will be little upside potential for a long time.

The short-term uptrend (E) will have serious problems with the $20 level. There is major resistance (C) and the long-term downtrend (A) to deal with at the $20 level. If DELL breaks the $20 level, the upside is limited by resistance (B) at $30. Most likely scenario is for a break of the uptrend (E) and a retest of support (D) at $8.00. Do not be surprised, if DELL moves sideways, between support (D) and resistance (C) for many years. Investors need to adjust to the new realities of stock market investing rates of return.

Summary: Sell.

Nuance Communications Garbled

Nuance Communications Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NUAN)

Technical Analysis: NUAN short-term uptrend (B) is having problems breaking resistance (A) at $15. If NUAN manages to break resistance, expect a move to previous highs above $20. The most likely scenario for NUAN is a break of the uptrend (B) and a retest of support (C) around $6.00.

Summary: Hold.

Motors Liquidation Fueled by Fools

Motors Liquidation Company (Public, OTC:MTLQQ)

Technical Analysis: MTLQQ, the corpse of old General Motors, will “not go gentle into that good night.” Hopefully, only fools are venturing near this rotting corpse, but just in case, sell if MTLQQ breaks support (B) at $0.70. The initial target is support (C) at $0.40. When support (C) at $0.40 is broken, expect a move to $0.00.

Summary: Sell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Out On a Limb

Dow Jones Industrial Average




Technical Analysis: This analysis applies as a general warning to many stocks. The short-term uptrend (C) looks great; until it is put in the perspective of the crash from the 2007 highs of over 14,000. Investors should watch for sell signals. A break of support (E) around 9,000 would be a warning. A break of the uptrend (C) would be a sell signal and, finally, a break of support (D) at 8,000 would be a strong sell signal. The problem with the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart and that of many other stocks is all of the resistance levels that impede future gains. This is no longer a bull market with clear blue skies ahead. These are dark and overcast days with very limited upside potential. It is unlikely, that the short-term uptrend (C) will break the long-term downtrend (A). If it does, it is very unlikely, that the uptrend (C) will break resistance (F) at 11,000 and so on through resistance (G) at 12,000 and resistance (H) at 13,000. Technically, it is safe to hold until the above sell signals are triggered. Unfortunately, the possibility of a very dramatic drop makes it prudent to sell into this rally.

Summary: Hold small positions, sell large positions.

SCO Group Raging Against the Dying

The SCO Group, Inc. (Public, OTC:SCOXQ)

Technical Analysis: The SCOXQ bounce over resistance (D) around $0.25 was like a dead man, suddenly, opening his eyes. Given that SCOXQ is in bankruptcy, as the recent turn of events in the judicial system proves, there is some chance that SCOXQ might arise from the deathbed. If SCOXQ manages to break resistance (C) around $0.50, then expect a move to resistance (B) at $0.75. If SCOXQ breaks resistance (B) at $0.75, then expect it to cover the August 2007 gap between $0.75 and $1.50. As long as SCOXQ stays above support (D) at $0.25, it is a hold. Those with a taste for the macabre should stay tuned for the further adventures of The SCO Group!

Summary: Hold.